Coalition plan to slash migration: what it could mean for Kenyans hoping to work in Australia
News · 2026-10-06 · 5 min read
If you are in Nairobi, Mombasa or elsewhere in Kenya and hope to work in Australia, here is the short version of this week's headlines. On Tuesday 6 October 2026 the federal Opposition, the Liberal and National Coalition, released its migration policy. It is a proposal only. It would apply only if the Coalition wins the next federal election and then makes the changes. Nothing in it is law or current policy, and existing visa rules are unchanged.
Three questions people ask first
Is this the biggest cut ever?
The Opposition describes its plan as the largest cut to immigration in Australia's history. It says it would favour migrants with the skills Australia needs, be budget-neutral, free up more homes and ease pressure on frontline services. Whether it would deliver that is open to debate.
What are the main figures?
Net overseas migration is arrivals minus departures. The plan sets it at 100,000 a year across the opening two years in office, then settles near 160,000 by year four. The Opposition points out that 100,000 would be the lowest figure since 2004 apart from the pandemic period, close to the steady rate of the late 1990s, and that after four years the share of the population arriving would stay beneath the average of an earlier Coalition government.
What happens to workers?
The plan expects about 650,000 fewer temporary visa holders in the country across four years. Permanent skilled places would remain limited to 185,000 each year, and over a longer horizon that ceiling could be reduced when needed, so arrivals stay lower than homes completed, matching the party's housing pledge. Skilled work visas would be tied tightly to occupations Australia needs.
Students and graduates in the plan
On study visas, the plan ends the temporary graduate visa, narrows who can travel with a main student as a secondary applicant (family members), and lowers new international commencements to 240,000. PhD holders and graduates in health, education or from regional universities would be offered post-study transitional visas instead.
How it compares with other proposals
| Who | What they have proposed |
|---|---|
| Coalition (Opposition) | Net overseas migration down to 100,000 for two years, about 160,000 in year four, temporary visa holders down by about 650,000 |
| Labor Government | Harder for international students to bring families, a clampdown on visa-hopping, visa priority for skilled workers in teaching, construction and agriculture |
| One Nation | A plan to cut net overseas migration by 750,000 over three years |
An independent MP criticised the Coalition's policy, warning it risked bringing to Australia the fear and division seen in immigration debates in the United States and parts of Europe.
What Kenyan applicants can do right now
- Work from today's rules on the official Home Affairs visa pages, not from social media.
- Collect your documents: KCSE results, KNEC transcripts, NITA trade test certificates and references. A local qualification never automatically equals an Australian licence, skills assessment or registration, so ask the relevant body what it needs.
- If a police certificate is requested, the DCI Certificate of Good Conduct, applied for through eCitizen, is the document to ask about.
- Get your CV ready with Build AI CV or another tool, and look at roles on the jobs page.
- If you use an adviser, check a MARA registration for Australia, or a licensed immigration adviser or lawfully exempt person for New Zealand.
Common mistakes during an election-style debate
Treating a proposal as a rule is the most common. People then cancel perfectly sound plans, or rush to pay a stranger who says a window is closing. A second mistake is to read the 650,000 figure as a ban on new applicants, when it describes a drop in temporary visa holders already living in Australia. A third is to assume every skilled visa would stop, when the plan keeps permanent skilled places at their current ceiling. To keep reading, try what the Coalition's migration cap could mean for skilled workers and what skilled workers weighing a move need to know.
Questions readers in Kenya ask
Can I still apply for Australian visas today?
Yes, under the rules in force. The plan does not change any visa today.
When could the plan start?
Only after a future election and only if the Coalition wins and changes the rules through the normal law-making process.
Does the plan end skilled migration?
No. Permanent skilled places would continue, within a ceiling of 185,000 a year.
Is the Coalition's plan the same as the government's?
No. The Labor Government has announced its own different changes.
What to remember
- The plan of 6 October 2026 is a proposal, not law.
- Annual net overseas migration would start at 100,000 and sit near 160,000 by year four.
- About 650,000 fewer temporary visa holders are projected across four years.
- Follow current rules and official announcements.
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