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935,600 tradies short by 2035? What Kenyan electricians, carpenters and plumbers should check first

News · 2026-09-10 · 4 min read

Australia's building industry says it could be short of roughly 935,600 tradies and construction workers by 2035 if nothing significant changes. Even if every recommended reform were adopted, the gap would still exceed 84,000. If you are a qualified electrician, carpenter, plumber or civil worker in Nairobi, Mombasa or anywhere in Kenya, that is a sign of long-term demand. It is not a job offer, and it is not a visa. This guide sets out what the figures say and the checks to make before you plan anything.

What is behind the shortfall

An industry body describes the problem as structural: the training pipeline is not keeping up with the amount of work ahead. Australia has about $242 billion of infrastructure spending planned over five years, on top of a long shift to net-zero energy. Housing, rail, roads and renewable projects all compete for the same shrinking pool of qualified labour. Separate modelling points to a 300,000-worker gap around 2027, just as the national infrastructure pipeline peaks.

For a Kenyan reader the useful reading is this: demand for skilled hands is expected to stay high for a long time, so there is time to prepare properly instead of rushing into a costly mistake.

Signs that migration is part of the answer

• Skilled visas granted to construction workers have tripled since 2019.
• In 2024-25, 15,524 skilled construction visas were issued, the highest annual total in a decade.
• The federal government has committed $85 million this budget cycle to speed up skills recognition for migrants already in the country.
• A $10,000 incentive is on offer for new apprentices entering housing construction, along with wider access to TAFE training.

Streamlining recognition for qualified workers already onshore could unlock over 18,000 workers almost immediately. That tells you recognition is a pressure point, so expect it to be a real step in your own plan.

Five checks for Kenyan tradespeople

None of these steps needs a lot of money, and most can be started this week from your phone or laptop.

1. Name your trade precisely. Carpentry, electrical, plumbing and civil construction are all mentioned as areas of sustained demand.
2. Gather proof of training. Keep your NITA trade test certificates, apprenticeship records and employer letters together, and scan them clearly.
3. Find out how Australia would assess your trade. A Kenyan certificate never automatically equals an Australian licence or skills assessment, and some trades such as electrical and plumbing work need a state licence as well.
4. Check the visa route. Speak to a migration agent on the MARA register about options that fit your trade and experience.
5. Prepare your CV. Tickets, project types and tools should be easy to find.

For the assessment side, RPLDirect gives information on recognising skills and qualifications for Australian work. A clear CV from Build AI CV can help you present your tickets and project history.

Common mistakes to avoid

• Treating "935,600 short" as a vacancy count. It is a projection of a gap, not a list of jobs.
• Skipping the skills assessment or licence step because demand is high.
• Paying anyone who promises a visa. Use a MARA migration agent.
• Assuming the $85 million recognition funding applies to people still overseas. It is aimed at migrants already in the country.

To keep reading, try our article on the skills shortage and the migration debate and piece on the missing national plan for skills. You can also see current jobs for overseas applicants.

Frequently asked questions

Does the shortfall mean any Kenyan tradie can get a visa?

No. Visas depend on your occupation, assessment, the employer and the visa rules at the time.

Will Kenyan trade certificates be accepted?

They show your training, but Australia decides what recognition is needed for each trade.

Is this a short-term boom?

The projection runs through 2035, and the gap is described as structural, not tied to one project.

What is the $10,000 incentive for?

It is for new apprentices entering housing construction, so it is not a payment to overseas workers.

Who can advise me?

A migration agent on the MARA register for Australia, or a licensed immigration adviser for New Zealand.

Key takeaways

• Australia projects a construction shortfall of roughly 935,600 by 2035 without significant intervention.
• Skilled construction visas have tripled since 2019, with 15,524 issued in 2024-25.
• Skills recognition is a major focus, so prepare for assessment and licensing.
• Kenyan qualifications are not automatically equal to Australian licences.
• Take advice from MARA-listed agents only.

#tradies #australia #construction jobs #kenya #skilled visas #trade qualifications