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NOM explained: what Australia’s favourite migration number means for skilled applicants in Kenya

News · 2026-08-26 · 4 min read

Short answer: net overseas migration, or NOM, is the headline figure Australian politicians quote when they argue about visas, and understanding it helps you read policy news without being misled. It is the number of people who arrive and stay at least a year, minus those who leave to settle abroad. For a skilled worker in Nairobi or Mombasa, the useful part is not the total itself. It is which visa categories are being singled out for tightening.

How the number is built

Australia uses a 12/16-month rule. A person counts toward NOM if they spend 12 months living in Australia within any 16-month window, even if that time is split over several visits. So a student who goes home for a month and returns is still counted, provided the cumulative time adds up.

NOM is not a foreigners-only statistic. It includes returning Australian citizens and permanent residents, and New Zealanders moving across the Tasman. Those groups move largely visa-free, which is why visa policy alone cannot control the total. Diplomats and their families are excluded. Short-term workers under the Pacific Australia Labour Mobility (PALM) programme, who can come for stints as short as a few months, may or may not be counted, depending purely on the length of their placement.

Why forecasts keep missing

NOM was roughly 301,000 for the year to December 2025, down from a post-pandemic high of around 556,000 in 2023, yet still above the government’s own projections. Forecasters expect a fall to 225,000 by 2027–28, though their estimates have consistently come in under the real figure. That is part of why NOM has become such a political lightning rod: promising a number and hitting it are very different things when so much movement comes from returning citizens and New Zealanders.

Where arrivals come from

Working holiday arrangements do not cover passport holders from Kenya, so that line is context, not an option for you. The student and skilled lines matter more. Read how this fits into the wider migration debate and the latest population forecasts before making plans.

Where the parties stand

Every major party now promises to bring the number down, though the clarity varies. One Nation has committed to a target of 130,000, but its messaging has wobbled. A newer MP suggested the real figure, once PALM workers and aged care nurses were counted again, could sit near 225,000, before senior figures reaffirmed 130,000. The cuts flagged include graduate visas, international student numbers and a tighter skilled list.

The Coalition has no firm figure and links any cap to housing construction, with suggestions of under 200,000. One senator floated 180,000, aimed at working holiday, student and select skilled visas, and colleagues quickly distanced themselves, given how many regional employers rely on seasonal working holiday-makers. Labor has effectively adopted the projection of 225,000 by 2028 as its target, focusing on enforcement: making sure temporary visa holders leave when their visas end, and slowing processing for working holiday and skilled applications meanwhile.

Common mistakes Kenyan readers make

• Treating a political target as a promise. Actual numbers have strayed far from projections.
• Reading the headline total and ignoring which categories face change.
• Assuming a KNEC or NITA qualification automatically meets an Australian skills assessment or licence.
• Waiting for certainty instead of preparing documents early.

For Australia, ask a migration agent on the Migration Agents Registration Authority (MARA) register to review your pathway, and for New Zealand use a licensed immigration adviser or someone lawfully exempt. A clear CV from Build AI CV helps, and our jobs page lists current roles.

Frequently asked questions

What does NOM stand for?

Net overseas migration: people who arrive and stay at least a year, minus those who leave to settle abroad.

Does NOM count only visa holders?

No. It also includes returning citizens, permanent residents and New Zealanders.

What is the 12/16-month rule?

Twelve months living in Australia within any 16-month window.

Which visas face scrutiny?

Student, graduate, working holiday and parts of the skilled list.

Should I trust a target?

Treat it as a direction of travel, not a promise.

Key takeaways

• NOM counts 12 months in a 16-month window, and includes citizens returning home.
• It was roughly 301,000 for the year to December 2025, against a high of around 556,000 in 2023.
• Students are the largest visa group at 157,000, ahead of skilled visa holders at 86,000.
• Parties promise lower numbers, with 130,000, under 200,000 and 225,000 all mentioned.
• Watch the visa categories, not only the headline number.

#net overseas migration #nom #australia visas #kenya #migration targets