Australia's long-range forecast leans on newcomers: what it could mean for Kenyans planning a move

News · 2026-09-28 · 4 min read

Two Kenyan engineers in safety gear overlook a waterfront construction site beside Sydney Harbour Bridge.

Australia's latest Intergenerational Report says plainly that the country's growth over the coming decades depends heavily on people who choose to move there. For skilled workers in Nairobi, Mombasa or anywhere else in Kenya, that is encouraging background, but it is a forecast, not an invitation, and the sensible response is to prepare rather than to rush.

What the report is

Every three years the federal government looks 40 years ahead and asks what the country will look like. Its answer on population is simple. Australians are having fewer children, and the fertility rate is projected to fall to 1.34 births per woman by 2065-66, well below the 1.62 assumed one report ago. By the 2060s, deaths are expected to outnumber births for the first time.

Even so, the population is forecast to reach 39.3 million by 2065-66. The gap is filled by net overseas migration, which the report assumes will average 235,000 people a year over the long term. The report calls the result "demographic resilience", in contrast with countries such as Germany, Italy and South Korea, where deaths already exceed births.

The numbers worth remembering

Topic	What the report projects
Median age of a recent migrant	Around 26, against 38 for existing residents
Median age overall	Up from 38.6 to 45 by 2062-63
Australians aged 65 and over	Nearly double
Australians aged 85 and over	Nearly triple
Economic growth	Easing from about 3% a year to about 2%

A younger intake is part of the reason the working-age population, ages 15 to 64, is expected to keep growing while many comparable economies see theirs shrink. The economy is projected to be more than twice its current size by 2065-66, with real per capita income up 55%, and life expectancy is forecast at 89.5 years for women and 86.1 for men.

Where the skills may be wanted

The report names several forces, each pointing to a kind of worker.

Care. An older population needs nurses, aged-care workers, allied health staff and disability support workers. Regulated professions have their own registration steps in Australia.
Energy. With a net zero target of 2050, Australia hopes to become a "renewable energy superpower" through critical minerals, green hydrogen and green metals, which means engineers, technicians, trades and project specialists.
Digital change. The effects of artificial intelligence are still uncertain, but they will shift which skills are most valuable.
Services. Growth keeps moving towards services, favouring professional, technical and people-facing work.

If you work in a trade, our guide to why skilled trades matter in Australian migration is worth a look, and the jobs page shows what employers are advertising now.

The catch: politics

The 235,000 figure is an assumption, not a promise. Some political parties have said they would pursue much lower levels if elected, and visa categories, occupation lists and priorities change with governments and budgets. That is why up-to-date information matters more than any single report. Our explainer on Australia's ageing future and migration covers the same tension from another angle.

Common mistakes Kenyan applicants make

Reading a 40-year forecast as a promise of a visa today.
Waiting for an occupation list to be published before gathering documents, when skills assessments, English tests and paperwork take time.
Assuming a KCSE result or a NITA trade test certificate is automatically an Australian qualification or licence.
Choosing an adviser without checking. Use an Australian migration agent on the MARA register, and be wary of anyone who promises results.

Practical preparation could start with an English test, and PractiseNow offers practice for IELTS, PTE and OET. For qualification evidence, RPLDirect explains recognition of prior learning in Australia.

Frequently asked questions

Does the report mean visas will become easier?

No. It describes long-term assumptions, and settings can change with governments.

Which jobs does it point towards?

Care, energy-transition trades and technical work, digital skills and services roles.

Is 235,000 a fixed annual intake?

No. It is an average the report assumes over the long term.

What should I do first?

Check current visa requirements, then start on skills assessments, English tests and documents early.

Do I need an agent?

Not necessarily, but if you want one, choose a MARA-listed agent and ask about their role clearly.

Key takeaways

Australia's growth forecast leans on net overseas migration, assumed at 235,000 a year on average.
Care, energy, digital and services skills are the areas the report highlights.
The figure is an assumption that politics can change.
Start early with assessments, English tests and documents, and use current official information.

#intergenerational report #australia #migration #skills #kenya